Coffee News : Below-Average Rainfall in Brazil Pushes Coffee Prices Sharply Higher
📅 October 13, 2025
📰 Source: Rich Asplund – Barchart
Coffee prices surged sharply this week as Brazil—home to the world’s largest arabica coffee production—faces below-average rainfall during a critical flowering stage. According to Somar Meteorologia, Minas Gerais received only 20.2 mm of rain last week—just 48% of the historical average.
This dry spell raises fears of reduced yields for the 2026/27 coffee crop, tightening global supply at a time when inventories are already falling.
On Monday:
- December Arabica (KCZ25) rose +2.91%,
- November Robusta (RMX25) climbed +2.59%.
Adding pressure, U.S. tariffs of 50% on Brazilian coffee imports have disrupted trade flows. With about one-third of America’s unroasted coffee coming from Brazil, American roasters are scrambling for alternatives, and ICE-monitored coffee inventories have dropped to their lowest levels in over a year.
“Dry weather in Brazil and trade tensions are setting the stage for sustained high coffee prices in the months ahead.”
— Kenya Coffee School Market Insights
🌍 Kenya Coffee School Market View
This development could favor African and East African coffee producers. With reduced Brazilian exports and higher global prices, Kenyan specialty coffee may see stronger demand and better prices—especially if quality and traceability remain high.
Kenya Coffee School continues to monitor global coffee trends and their impact on farmers, roasters, and baristas across Africa.
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