Kenya is currently in the midst of a vibrant 2025/2026 coffee season, characterized by high demand and strong auction performance. As of February 2026, the industry is seeing a significant “bumper harvest” response, particularly in the central highlands.
☕ Market Performance (February 2026)
The Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) has reported exceptionally strong sales recently. While volumes have surged, prices for top-tier quality remain highly competitive.
- Average Prices: Recent sales (Sale 16 in early February) saw average prices around $346 per 50kg bag, though premium lots frequently hit $440 – $500.
- Grade Performance: * AA Grade: Continues to anchor the market, recently averaging $368 – $422 per bag.
- AB Grade: Currently dominates volume, accounting for nearly half of the coffee sold, with prices averaging around $352 – $384.
- Top Performers: Cooperative societies like Gititu (Kiambu) and regions represented by Kirinyaga Slopes have been fetching the season’s highest prices due to exceptional cup quality.
🚜 2026 Harvest & Production Trends - Main Crop Status: The main harvest (typically Oct–Dec) is winding down its primary processing phase, with high-quality lots currently flooding the auctions. Specialty volumes have remained resilient despite some overall production fluctuations.
- Emerging Regions: While Nyeri and Kirinyaga remain the “gold standard,” there is a notable investment shift toward Bungoma, Kericho, and Trans Nzoia. These regions offer “virgin soils” that are producing high yields with lower rehabilitation costs.
- Variety Shift: Farmers are increasingly adopting Batian and Ruiru 11 for new plantings. These are favored for their resistance to Coffee Berry Disease (CBD) and Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR), reducing production costs by roughly 30%.
🔬 Alignment with Your Harvest Parameters
Based on your specific targets for the next harvest, the current market conditions for AA (17/18) and AB (15/16) grades look very favorable.
Parameter Your Target 2026 Season Context
Screen Size 17/18 (AA) or 15/16 (AB) AA and AB are currently the high-volume/high-value leaders in the NCE.
Moisture Content 11.2% – 11.5% Perfectly aligned with the industry standard of 10–12% for stable export.
Water Activity (a_w) 0.52 – 0.58 Ideal range for preventing microbial growth during the current shipping window.
Density 820 – 850 g/L Reflects the high-altitude density typically found in this year’s “Strictly High Grown” lots. Note: With the “fly crop” (early harvest) expected around June, the current high prices are encouraging farmers to invest more in pruning and fertilization now to ensure the next cycle meets these rigorous quality.
Coffee and Barista News by Kenya Coffee School and Barista Mtaani